The guessing game again – Aion
Back in 2008 before Warhammer released a number of bloggers were involved in a guessing game on how many subscribers Warhammer might get. I played, and utilizing a number of complicated algorithms and my own “sixth sense”, I came up with a figure of 1.5 million. I think I forgot to carry the four. Not quite as bad as some other bloggers out there who came up with figures as high as 4 million subscribers, but I guess we all got sucked in by the Warhammer hype.
So, with Aion less than two months from release I decided to take a stab at its initial numbers. Having now perfected my complicated algorithm, and trusting in my “sixth sense” I can confidently come up with this figure. When I guessed 1.5 million for Warhammer, I figured there were 500k disappointed, lost Age of Conan fans as well as a core Dark Age of Camelot and Warhammer fanbase. With Warhammer Online now 600k subscribers worse off than at release you would think that would make 1.1 million lost gamers out there. But I wonder if there were only ever 500k gamers searching for that new game. When Age of Conan disappointed they moved to Warhammer. When WAR failed them, they moved to another game; back to WoW perhaps.
Champions Online is also releasing around the same time and this will surely impact the amount of subscribers Aion gets, though I think CO will be a smaller launch. Age of Conan and Warhammer released with about 700k-800k subscribers, but lost most of those over the following months. I think that’s a reasonable figure to expect for Aion, the main difference being that I don’t think Aion will lose subscribers like AoC and WAR did. Aion is already a highly polished game in beta (but Tortage was highly polished to) and offers elements similar to WAR’s PvP as well as a whole lot more.
So, my guess? 800,000 subscribers in the month following launch, maintaining that number up to Christmas. There’s too many games on all platforms launching around Christmas to tell beyond that.
Comments
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caliga
Time: August 10, 2009, 8:10 am
Good call. I agree that it won’t suffer from release bugs and consequentially, a loss in subscribers, due to the fact that it is already a polished and released game. I hope it does break the 1 million mark.
Comment from Aunwyn
Time: August 14, 2009, 8:56 pm
Caliga, left a message for Keiry over on her site as well. Is everyone dropping there AOC subscription and going to Aion? Is so what race is everyone going to pick?
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caliga
Time: August 15, 2009, 2:05 pm
Hi Aunwyn. Yes we’ll be taking a break from AoC while we try out Aion. And we’ve decided to go the good guys (subjective) this time around so we’ll be playing Elyos. You can keep in touch with us at http://www.guildportal.com/Guild.aspx?GuildID=307861&TabID=2580644
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I guess we all got sucked in by the Warhammer hype.
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